Will AI grow bigger than Google search? 2020-2028 statistics and my predictions

• No, AI won’t grow bigger than Google search by 2028 – I predict it reaches 14% share
• The total search market has expanded significantly. Google continues to grow its revenue.
• The AI search vs Google battle for now impacts informational search more than commercial search.

This is my updated take on where online search is going. I first wrote this in 2024 and updated a few things to the reality of 2026.

This post is written for companies who gain visibility (and money 💰️) from search today. I define search as getting information via the internet. This means Google search and AI tools are in the same bucket.

AI search vs Google: The Results

I focus on Google vs AI tools in this post. Other search engines are left out in the data. I like to start with the results.

If you want to dig into how I reached these numbers, it is all covered at the end in Section 4. We have data from sources like Similarweb and Statista to guide us.

How big is the market share of all AI tools compared to Google currently?

I have collected the latest data through early 2026. It results in this updated outlook. You can see the shift in daily billion searches here:

Back in 2024, all AI tools held around 6% share of the search market. Growth has continued steadily at around 35% yearly. This leads to my projection of a 14% share by 2028.

Google still maintains a dominant 86% share of the search market compared to all AI tools. This paints a clearer picture of AI search vs Google dominance. Even with more competition, the main player remains the same.

Will this mean Google will lose traffic and revenue?

Actually no. They continue to grow even as they lose small amounts of market share. This is because the search market itself is expanding by roughly 8% yearly.

From 2022 to 2028 the combined search market will expand 40,6%. This growth includes both AI chats and traditional Google queries. People are simply searching more often than they did five years ago.

Can we directly compare AI use and searches per day? No, not directly. I have converted these numbers for a fair comparison. They remain rough estimates based on the total volume of intents.

Will websites lose search traffic?

If we talk about all websites globally combined, I don’t believe they will. Not before 2028. On an individual level, it depends on what category of search you are currently in.

You can divide search into 2 categories:
informational search: When you search to learn.
Money search: When you search to buy or compare products and services.

Learn more in my tiny guide 😊

AI chats mainly eat information search share from Google. This directly impacts traffic for websites that only provide basic facts. You can see the trend in this graph:

If we look at money search, AI takes a way smaller piece of the pie. Websites in this category should expect continued growth through 2028. Buying decisions still happen primarily through traditional search interfaces.

AI doesn’t eat the market – it expands it

The graphs might look like a scenario where traditional search is declining. However, search is actually growing faster than it loses share to AI. For money search, there has been no real decline.

My take is that AI chats expand the search market or create a new one. Recent usage data suggests that AI is not disrupting search so much as adding to it. People use AI for complex tasks and Google for finding sites.

AI Search vs Google: Reality and Predictions

2024 (Historical)

✅ Results:

• Google had a tough first year with AI overviews after the May launch.
• Traditional search kept growing regardless. Google hit record revenue on search ads as predicted.

📊 Traffic share:

• AI like ChatGPT: 6% of informational search
• AI like ChatGPT: 1% of money search
• Total search market growth: 4%

2025 (Historical)

✅ Results:

• Use of AI apps on phones and computers like ChatGPT and Apple Intelligence accelerated.
• This began eating more informational search from Google.
• The market expanded as expected, and Google search volumes did not collapse.

📊 Traffic share:

• AI like ChatGPT: 7% of informational search
• AI like ChatGPT: 3% of money search
• Total search market growth: 3.5%

2026 (Current Year)

🔮 Prediction & Reality:

• “Private AI” is now deeply integrated on most computers and smartphones.
• Google is back in the top-3 of the AI race and capturing a serious piece of the AI search pie.
• User habits have stabilized between quick chats and deep searches.

📊 Traffic share:

• AI like ChatGPT: 9% of informational search
• AI like ChatGPT: 4% of money search
• Total search market growth: 2%

2027

🔮 Prediction:

• AI search will be fully mainstream and unremarkable at this point.
• Roughly 20% of searches will happen via chatbots, but 80% remain goal-oriented “A to B” searches.
• The classic “Google search” list will still be the dominant way to find services.
• This experience will be powered by AI to give you highly relevant options (think Googles AI Mode on steroids)

📊 Traffic share:

• AI like ChatGPT: 11% of informational search
• AI like ChatGPT: 5% of money search
• Total search market growth: 1%

2028

🔮 Prediction:

• AI is no longer a separate thing; it is just a part of all devices.
• You won’t think about the difference between “Googling” and “chatting” anymore.
• Some websites will lose up to 20% traffic if they focus on generic info.
• Companies will focus on brand visibility in search results to offset traffic losses.

📊 Traffic share:

• AI like ChatGPT: 13% of informational search
• AI like ChatGPT: 6% of money search
• Total search market growth: 1%

What happens to your websites traffic in 2028?

• 🔻If you rely on informational guides that are easily summarized, you can expect increasing losses.
• 💲If you expand your brand and aim for money search via money keywords, you will likely prosper.
• 💲If you produce informational content that is opinionated and personal, AI cannot easily replace you.
• 💲If you produce great personally guiding videos on YouTube, your brand visibility will keep growing.
• 🔻If AI becomes super-intelligent and takes over, our website traffic won’t be our biggest problem 😅

How I reached these results

All data used for this article are 3rd-party estimates from respected sources. This helps define the AI search vs Google landscape. I primarily used Statista, Similarweb, and historical growth charts. More details in this Google Sheets containing data and sources

Annual growth rates: Google search

Google search growth rates from 2020-2023 were based on historical data. We saw a steady decline in the growth rate as search became a maturing technology. From 2024 onwards, I attributed lower growth due to AI stealing market share.

AI searches per day calculation

We know the search share of Bing is around 3.4% of the market. Based on visits to AI platforms, we can simulate how big usage is compared to search engines. I factor in mobile apps which account for significant additional usage.

Annual growth rates: AI

I expect AI usage to continue pick up speed after the initial plateau in 2024. My growth expectations for AI are quite optimistic. This assumes people keep finding new ways to integrate these tools into their daily flow.

Google has incorporated AI directly into its results, which could stunt third-party growth. However, ChatGPT remains the leader of its specific category. It is likely that over time these tools settle at a 10-20% market share.

Conclusion

I don’t see Google search revenue decreasing in the next two years. Even during the peak of AI hype, Alphabet continues to show search revenue growth. The market is likely just expanding rather than being replaced.

ChatGPT has several million paid subscribers, which proves that research and automation are worth a subscription. ChatGPT will likely stay the king of research and automation tasks. Google will remain the king of navigational and commercial search.

Googles share of search by category (prediction):

Frequently Asked Questions

Will AI replace Google search?

Not in the near future. AI is more likely to augment traditional search than replace it. Most users still rely on Google for finding products, services, and websites. AI handles quick informational queries well, but the two tools are co-existing rather than competing head-on. The market is expanding, not just shifting.

How much of the search market will AI hold by 2028?

Based on current growth data, I project AI tools will reach around 14% of total searches by 2028 (see my methodology to compare Google and AI search above). Google keeps the remaining 86%. Growth is slowing from the early boom years, but AI is still gaining ground at a steady pace.

Which websites are most at risk from AI search growth?

Sites that publish generic, easily summarized information are most exposed. Pages targeting purchase intent or featuring personal, opinionated writing are much less at risk. The key is knowing which category your content falls into before 2028 arrives.

Is Google losing revenue because of AI competition?

Not yet. Google’s search ad revenue has continued to grow even as AI tools become more popular. The overall search market is still expanding, which offsets any share lost to AI. Alphabet has reported record search numbers even through the peak of the AI hype cycle – which says a lot.