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This is my take on where online search is going in the future.
This post is written for companies who gain visibility (and money 💰️) from search today.
I define search as getting information via technology = Google search + AI are in the same bucket.
Results
I focus on Google vs AI tools in this post. Other search engines are left out in the data.
I like to start with the results. If you want to dig into how I reached these numbers, it is all covered at the end in section 4, including link to a spreadsheet.
How big the market share of all AI tools compared to Google currently?
We have approximate data from sources such as Similarweb, Statista, Datos and many others.
I have collected the data and it results in this graph:
In 2024 all AI tools have around 6% share of the search market. And actually this number is declining from a 2023 high.
I project AI usage to grow up to 35% yearly from 2025. This is optimistic. It will lead to a 14% share of the search market by 2028.
Then Google will have a 86% share of the search market compared to all AI tools by 2028
Will this mean Google will lose traffic and revenue?
Actually no. They will keep growing even if they lose market share. Because the search market is currently growing at roughly 8% yearly.
From 2022-2028 the combined search market (all AI + Google) will expand 40,6%
This graph shows Googles + AI chats historical and predicted searches per day:
Can we directly compare AI use and searches per day? No, not directly. I have converted it. These numbers are rough estimates. See section 4.
Will websites lose search traffic?
If we talk about all websites globally combined, I don’t believe they will. Not before 2028.
On an individual level It depends on what category of search you are currently in.
You can divide search into 2 categories:
informational search: When you search to learn. Example: “How do I delete cells in Excel?”
Money search: When you search to buy or compare products and services.
My prediction is that AI chats will mainly eat information search share from Google (and therefore also traffic from some websites):
And if we look at money search, this is my prediction:
AI will take a way smaller piece of the pie, and websites should expect continued growth:
AI doesn’t eat the market – it expands it
The above graphs might look like a scenario where search is declining. But above graph shows traditional search is growing faster than it’s losing market share to AI. So at least when it comes to money search, I see no decline.
When I look at all the data my take is that AI chats expands the search market or even creates an entire new market. Recent AI usage data from Davos and Rand Fishkins brilliant commentary (August 2024) reach the same conclusion.
Prediction by year
2024
🔮 Prediction:
- Google will have a tough first year with AI search since they play catch up (US launch in May)
- Traditional search will keep growing. Google will do record revenue on search ads.
📊 Traffic share:
- AI like ChatGPT: 6% of informational search
- AI like ChatGPT: 1% of money search
- Total search market growth: 4%
2025
🔮 Prediction:
- Use of AI apps for phones and computers like ChatGPT and Copilot for Windows will accelerate
- This will start to eat more informational and money search from Google
- But mainly it will expand the market. Google will still grow
📊 Traffic share:
- AI like ChatGPT: 7% of informational search
- AI like ChatGPT: 3% of money search
- Total search market growth: 3.5%
2026
🔮 Prediction:
- AI apps like ChatGPT’s app and Copilot for Windows will grow even faster
- “Private AI” can be deeply integrated on your computers and phones
- Google back in top-3 of AI race and start getting a serious piece of the AI search pie
📊 Traffic share:
- AI like ChatGPT: 9% of informational search
- AI like ChatGPT: 4% of money search
- Total search market growth: 2%
2027
🔮 Prediction:
- AI search will be mainstream at this point
- 20% of the time you search via a chatbot and 80% you simply want to go from A to B – especially for money search
- Which means the classic A-B “Google search” with a list of results will still be 80% of search
- This A to B will be powered by AI to give you highly relevant options (Google search on steroids)
📊 Traffic share:
- AI like ChatGPT: 11% of informational search
- AI like ChatGPT: 5% of money search
- Total search market growth: 1%
2028
🔮 Prediction:
- AI is now just a part of all devices and your search
- You no longer think about the difference between “Googling” and “chatting”
- Websites will start losing up to 20% traffic
- But companies will at the same time gain brand visibility in search results = no change in visibility
📊 Traffic share:
- AI like ChatGPT: 13% of informational search
- AI like ChatGPT: 6% of money search
- Total search market growth: 1%
What happens to your websites traffic in 2028?
- 🔻If you rely on informational guides like “how to format numbers in Excel” you can expect increasing losses year after year
- 💲If you keep expanding your brand and aim for money search via money keywords you will prosper
- 💲If you produce informational content that is opinionated and personal, there is a big chance AI cannot eat you
- 💲If you produce great personally guiding videos on for example YouTube your brand and search traffic will keep growing
- 🔻If AI becomes super intelligent and takes over the world, yeah well, our websites won’t matter I guess 😅
How I reached these results
All data used for this article are 3rd-party estimates from respected sources.
Mainly Statista, Similarweb and these articles:
- https://www.thewrap.com/chatgpt-growth-2024/.
- https://backlinko.com/chatgpt-stats
- https://backlinko.com/bing-users
You can also view my Spreadsheet with all data
Annual growth rates: Google search
Google search growth rates from 2020-2023 are based on historical data
We see a steady decline in the growth rate of search, since it’s a maturing technology.
From 2024 and onwards I have attributed growth to be low based on AI stealing market share.
Very conservative growth, since I want to avoid bias towards search.
| Year | Billion searches/day | Traffic growth |
| 2020 | 6.00 | |
| 2021 | 6.55 | 9.1% |
| 2022 | 7.09 | 8.3% |
| 2023 | 7.64 | 7.7% |
| 2024 | 7.94 | 4.0% |
| 2025 | 8.22 | 3.5% |
| 2026 | 8.38 | 2.0% |
| 2027 | 8.47 | 1.0% |
| 2028 | 8.55 | 1.0% |
AI searches per day calculation
All AI search engines combined receive roughly 2 million visits per month vs Bing 1.3 millions.
On top of that AI apps on desktop + mobile also account for additional usage.
+20% is a big overestimation based on data I could find, but I will use that number.
2.4 million “visits” total once +20% mobile usage is factored in.
We know the search share of Bing is 3,4% of the entire search engine market.
Based on the above we can simulate how big usage of AI is compared to search engines:
2,4 million visits per month / 1,3 millions on Bing = 185% * current 3,4% Bing market share.
6.3% of Googles search market and 6% of combined market in 2023
| AI chat bots | |||
| Year | Billion searches/day | Traffic growth | Ai market share |
| 2020 | 0.0% | ||
| 2021 | 0.0% | ||
| 2022 | 0.02 | 0.3% | |
| 2023 | 0.49 | 2343.5% | 6.0% |
| 2024 | 0.50 | 2.0% | 5.9% |
| 2025 | 0.67 | 35.0% | 7.6% |
| 2026 | 0.91 | 35.0% | 9.8% |
| 2027 | 1.18 | 30.0% | 12.2% |
| 2028 | 1.42 | 20.0% | 14.2% |
Annual growth rates: AI
You can see my estimated growth rates in the table above (Traffic growth collumn).
Actually AI has dropped traffic since it’s peak of 2023 – from 1.8 to 1.3 billion visits.
I expect things to pick up a little speed after Summer 2024 so the year will end in small growth.
(Actually I don’t expect that, but I want to calculate the best case scenario for AI growth)
Which also means my growth expectation from 2025 is VERY optimistic for AI.
Especially considering Google starts to incorporate AI results in it’s search results.
If Google can eventually catch up on ChatGPT’s quality it might stunt ChatGPT’s growth
But I doubt Google can fully kill the leader of a new category: AI search
What I find more likely to happen is that over time ChatGPT will get 10-20% market share
Conclusion
I don’t see how Google in the next 5 years will decrease revenue from search.
In the biggest hype for AI ever, they are still growing their search revenue significantly:
Source: Alphabet Announces Second Quarter 2024 Results (PDF)
It is way more likely that the market simply expands
This has already happened as far as I can see:
ChatGPT plus has around 3.9 million paid subscribers in US alone and OpenAI revenue is $2 Billion.
This tells you that informational search and automation is now worth a monthly subscription if it’s great enough.
ChatGPT will become the kings of research and automation.
Google will stay kings of remaining search.
Table:
Googles share of search by category (prediction):
| Year | Money search | Information search |
| 2022 | 100% | 100% |
| 2023 | 99% | 95% |
| 2024 | 99% | 94% |
| 2025 | 97% | 93% |
| 2026 | 96% | 91% |
| 2027 | 95% | 89% |
| 2028 | 94% | 87% |
